MARCELO SAENZ
Katy
Summary
Professional with 24 years of experience in the energy industry, both in consulting and the industry. Expert in market analysis, commodity price forecasting, and development of power market outlooks for North America and Mexico using production cost models. Experience with commercial operations of power plants, integrated resource planning, and commercial advisory in support of due diligence, buy/sell side transactions of power assets, and market entry strategies.
Overview
30
30
years of professional experience
Work History
Principal
AFRY Management Consulting
07.2022 - 12.2024
- Led the Market Analysis and Forecasting services for AFRY in North America, achieving a 45% cost reduction in the development of AFRY’s market outlooks in 2024.
- Lead consulting engagements focused on market analysis, buy/sell side transactions, due diligence, and market entry strategies.
- Support the strategic vision and direction of the consulting team in North America, contributing to business decisions, hiring, and team development.
- Directed business development efforts focused on market analysis engagements or any project supported by market analysis, achieving sales of $250k - $500k annually.
- Managed a team of 10 consultants, including four direct reports, and advised clients globally, collaborating with AFRY offices across Europe, Australia, and China.
Consulting Manager (Global Key Expert)
Siemens AG
03.2015 - 06.2022
- Managed consulting engagements for utilities, supporting strategic planning and Integrated Resource Plans (IRP). Simulated complex generation portfolios to meet carbon reduction policies and renewable mandates, resulting in successful IRPs for Puerto Rico, DTE in Michigan, municipalities in NM and MO, the Cayman Islands, and community choice aggregators in California.
- Acted as witness testimony expert for some of these IRPs.
- Led the development of scopes of work, milestones, budgets, and staff assignments, managing a $1 million in consulting engagements per year, and achieved ~ $1 million in consulting sales in 2020/2021.
- Led Siemens US power market outlooks in 2020-2022 and a team of junior and subject matter experts.
- Focused on Mexico’s deregulation of the power markets in 2015 - 2018. Developed power market outlooks and price forecasts supporting market entry strategies, buy-side transactions, and due diligence of merchant generation assets. Knowledge of the market structure and players in Mexico.
- Coached junior Consultants in Aurora modeling and analytical approaches to consulting projects. Promoted from Sr. Consultant to Manager in December 2019.
Sr. Economist
LG&E and KU Energy LLC
01.2009 - 03.2015
- Led the development of wholesale electricity price forecasts for the company's annual business plan, generation planning, and IRP filings. Coordinated a team of analysts and guided input assumptions and market fundamentals.
- Supported commercial operations and strategic planning by developing complex scenarios to evaluate the impact of new environmental regulations and changing market conditions on wholesale power and emissions markets.
- Implemented the AURORA power market model, replacing an older model. Calibrated the model for PJM and MISO and collaborated with Energy Exemplar to develop new functionalities.
- Developed a monthly newsletter reporting on the energy commodity markets for Senior Management, focused on the PJM and MISO wholesale power markets.
- Performed revenue requirements analysis for renewable generation to support the potential compliance with Renewable Portfolio Standards in the state of Kentucky.
Market Analyst
Public Service Company of New Mexico
07.2005 - 01.2009
- Company Overview: PNM
- Performed quantitative analysis to support commercial opportunities in the Southwest and California wholesale power markets, optimizing the dispatch of merchant and regulated generation assets, and the structuring and pricing of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). Optimized the dispatch of a long-term power contract with a neighboring utility.
- Developed week-ahead hourly load forecasts, enhancing the dispatch of the utility’s generation assets in the day-ahead and real-time markets. Enhanced the ITRON-Metrix ND load forecasting model.
- Generated market intelligence reports and databases for traders and dispatchers, expanding information sources and analytical tools to the team. Supported the company’s short-term and medium-term “view” of energy commodity prices.
- Supported other commercial activities, including the sale of over $12 million in SO2 allowance credits.
- PNM
Analyst
Pace Global Energy Services
05.2001 - 07.2005
- Developed forecasts of wholesale power prices, generation dispatch, and revenue projections for electric power generators, supporting project financing and due diligence for Independent Power Producers and financial institutions. Focused on emerging gas-fired combined cycle projects developed by independent power producers (IPP), including Calpine, NRG, and LS Power.
- Supported regional power market outlooks for several NERC power regions and RTOs. Developed long-term energy demand forecasts using linear regression estimations.
- Worked on international consulting projects, forecasting industrial rates, wholesale power prices, electricity demand, and fossil fuels consumption for countries such as Mexico and Colombia. Populated the databases and calibrated the Aurora model.
- Support the implementation of the Aurora model in the consulting practice.
Journalist
Dinero Business magazine
11.1994 - 12.1996
- Wrote several articles on the automotive industry, housing construction, health care, hotel business, and the Colombian economy. Assignments involved interviewing Colombian business leaders and searching for applicable literature and data.
- Supported senior editors with economic and statistical analysis, and prepared rankings of the largest Colombian companies. Promoted from Research Assistant to Journalist in July 1995.
Education
Global Energy Leadership Program - Leadership and Strategic Management in the Energy Industry
Rice University – Jones Graduate School of Business
Houston, TX05.2021
Master - Economics
West Virginia University - College of Business And Economics
08.2000
B.S. - Economics
Universidad De Los Andes
03.1995
Skills
- Production cost modeling
- Aurora
- BID3
- MIDAS
- Prosym
- Gas modeling
- Gas Pipeline Competition Model (GPCM)
- ITRON Metrix ND
- Palisade @Risk
- EViews
- Advanced use of MS Office
Publications
- On the path to Decarbonization, Electrification and Renewables in California and the Northeast United States, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, 07/01/18
- Impact of Clean Energy Policies and Electrification in New York and New England, EPIS 20th Annual Electric Market Forecasting Conference, 09/01/17
- Mexico’s New Electricity Sector – Considerations and Opportunities, EPIS Annual Electric Market Forecasting Conference, 09/01/15
- Impact of Coal Retirements in PJM to meet the MATS rule, EPIS Annual Electric Market Forecasting Conference, 09/01/12
- Housing Market Development by Geographic Areas of Bogotá, Research Center for Economic Development, Universidad de Los Andes, 06/01/95
Awards
- Who's Who in America, 176th edition, 2024
- Siemens AG, Global Key Expert (2022)
Timeline
Principal
AFRY Management Consulting
07.2022 - 12.2024
Consulting Manager (Global Key Expert)
Siemens AG
03.2015 - 06.2022
Sr. Economist
LG&E and KU Energy LLC
01.2009 - 03.2015
Market Analyst
Public Service Company of New Mexico
07.2005 - 01.2009
Analyst
Pace Global Energy Services
05.2001 - 07.2005
Journalist
Dinero Business magazine
11.1994 - 12.1996
Global Energy Leadership Program - Leadership and Strategic Management in the Energy Industry
Rice University – Jones Graduate School of Business
Master - Economics
West Virginia University - College of Business And Economics
B.S. - Economics
Universidad De Los Andes
Similar Profiles
NAJEEB THALAKKATTNAJEEB THALAKKATT
Senior Backend Developer at AFRYSenior Backend Developer at AFRY
Shyam Sundar BShyam Sundar B
HSE Manager at AFRY Switzerland LtdHSE Manager at AFRY Switzerland Ltd
ERICKSON FLORESERICKSON FLORES
Senior Electrical Engineer and PV Design Engineer at AFRY Philippines Inc.Senior Electrical Engineer and PV Design Engineer at AFRY Philippines Inc.