Mary Rose O'Brien
Baltimore,MD
Summary
Conflict and geopolitical risk analyst with 15+ years of experience conducting structured conflict assessments, early warning analysis, and governance risk advisory in fragile and politically volatile environments. Experienced in synthesizing multi-source reporting into executive-level briefs and scenario models to inform operational and policy decisions. Former U.S. Government Secret clearance holder with field experience in Iraq, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, and the Horn of Africa.
Overview
19
19
years of professional experience
Work History
Senior Technical Advisor
Catholic Relief Services
Baltimore, MD, USA
01.2022 - 01.2025
- Led conflict and operational risk analysis for a $1.5B global organization operating in politically volatile and high-risk environments.
- Developed structured conflict and political risk assessment frameworks and trainings supporting 7,000+ staff and 2,000 partners.
- Conducted conflict and political risk assessments that directly informed a $113M Ethiopia resilience program and $26M Afghanistan recovery operation, integrating early warning indicators into program design and adaptive planning.
- Identified instability patterns across priority regions by synthesizing multi-source reporting and programmatic data to forecast potential conflict escalation risks.
- Advised senior leadership and country teams on aligning conflict risk analysis with portfolio strategy, resource allocation, and operational adaptation in high-risk contexts.
Technical Advisor
Oxfam Great Britain
Yangon, Myanmar
01.2019 - 01.2022
- Served as lead conflict and political risk analyst for a €19.5M European Union (EU)-funded program in an active conflict zone.
- Developed scenario-based political risk models during Myanmar’s military coup and COVID-19 crisis, identifying escalation triggers and operational risk thresholds across humanitarian and development portfolios.
- Conducted structured conflict and situational analyses affecting 3.5M+ people, synthesizing political, social, and displacement dynamics to inform strategic program adaptation.
- Produced high-level analytical briefings for the European Union, U.S. Government, and diplomatic stakeholders on conflict trends, governance fragmentation, and regional instability in northeast Myanmar.
- Integrated conflict indicators and cross-sector risk analysis (livelihoods, WASH, natural resource management, gender) into consortium-wide planning processes supporting durable solutions, returns, and resettlement.
Program Manager
Religions for Peace
New York, USA
01.2014 - 01.2019
- Managed programmatic compliance, regulatory reporting, and risk across 90 global affiliates.
- Led strategic research and intelligence initiatives that developed actionable threat mitigation frameworks for 5,000+ religious leaders and faith-based organizations, creating comprehensive guides for countering violent extremism, building community resilience against security threats, and implementing social cohesion strategies to prevent radicalization and community destabilization.
- Produced executive-ready background briefs, risk scans, and talking points for senior leaders ahead of high-level convenings, distilling geopolitical, social, and reputational risks into clear decision options.
- Monitored open-source and partner reporting to flag emerging threats (political unrest, dis/misinformation, inter-group tensions) that could affect participants, venues, or programming.
Program Manager
ACTED
Kyrgyz Republic & Myanmar
01.2013 - 01.2014
- Managed a $2M USAID security and conflict mitigation project.
- Built a country-wide geo-enabled early-warning program linking 700+ vetted community leaders with SMS intake and comms monitoring; geolocated signals in GIS to produce live heat maps, define escalation paths and prioritize threats, and trigger rapid notifications to decision-makers.
- Directed multi-sector threat assessment strategy covering water, agriculture, and education sectors that influenced government policy and national security legislation.
- Led security awareness initiative reaching 2M+ citizens, coordinating with national media and government partners to build societal resilience.
- Built and facilitated trainings combining conflict resolution and protective intelligence workflows to strengthen duty-of-care and operational continuity.
Conflict Resolution and International Development Consultant
Independent Consultant
01.2009 - 01.2012
- Delivered structured conflict and institutional risk analysis across fragile environments.
- Advised international NGOs and government partners on conflict risk reduction, governance capacity, and organizational resilience in Asia, South America, and Africa.
- Delivered scenario-based policy advisory to strengthen early warning systems and institutional governance structures.
Project Manager
Torres AES
Baghdad, Iraq
01.2006 - 01.2009
- Conducted institutional and governance risk assessments within Iraq’s Council of Ministers Secretariat, advising U.S. Embassy officials and senior Iraqi leadership on stabilization priorities and administrative reform strategy.
- Produced analytical assessments identifying structural inefficiencies and political bottlenecks across 11 directorates and six offices, informing a multi-year reconstruction and institutional restructuring initiative.
- Facilitated coordination between U.S. government entities, Iraqi ministries, and international contractors to align reform efforts and reduce duplicative governance structures.
- Advised on politically sensitive disputes, including International Zone security access and government claims processes, navigating legal, administrative, and security considerations in a high-risk environment.
Education
Master of Science - Conflict Analysis and Resolution
George Mason University
Bachelor of Arts - Political Science
Boston College
Advanced Personal Security Training - Hostile Environment Awareness Training [HEAT] Equivalent
Strategies for Trauma Awareness & Resilience - STAR I & II
Eastern Mennonite University
Community-led Action in Response to Violent Extremism - undefined
University of Maryland, START
Skills
- Risk & Conflict Analysis
- Scenario Planning & Forecasting
- Early Warning Systems & Indicator Development
- Political & Governance Risk
- Executive Briefing & Decision Support
- Fragile & Conflict-Affected States
- Interagency & Multilateral Coordination
- Portfolio Risk Oversight
Affiliations
Affiliate Faculty (Visiting Fellow), George Mason University, Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution
Languages
Proficient in Spanish
U.S. Government Secret Clearance (lapsed, available for reinstatement)
Timeline
Senior Technical Advisor
Catholic Relief Services
01.2022 - 01.2025
Technical Advisor
Oxfam Great Britain
01.2019 - 01.2022
Program Manager
Religions for Peace
01.2014 - 01.2019
Program Manager
ACTED
01.2013 - 01.2014
Conflict Resolution and International Development Consultant
Independent Consultant
01.2009 - 01.2012
Project Manager
Torres AES
01.2006 - 01.2009
Bachelor of Arts - Political Science
Boston College
Advanced Personal Security Training - Hostile Environment Awareness Training [HEAT] Equivalent
Strategies for Trauma Awareness & Resilience - STAR I & II
Eastern Mennonite University
Community-led Action in Response to Violent Extremism - undefined
University of Maryland, START
Master of Science - Conflict Analysis and Resolution
George Mason University
Selected Publications
- O’Brien, M. R., et al. Building a culture of conflict sensitivity within a consortium. In Conflict Sensitivity in Development, Humanitarian & Peacebuilding Practice Trends and Challenges. Routledge, 2025. Link.
- Van Zaal, K., O’Brien, M., & Guyer, P. (2021). Reaching out across lines: Determinants of positive intergroup interaction in conflict-affected communities in Myanmar. Local Development & Society, 2(2), 201–222. Link.